Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:59:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bb4…692a sports 481 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$18,817 (-57%) realized −$18,818 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate34%160W / 317L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,170
7 days+$1,161
14 days+$1,189
30 days+$1,177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$14,734
crypto 16% +$1,224
sports 13% −$1,121
world 13% −$2,889
weather 4% +$47
politics 2% +$90
finance 1% +$127
tech 0% −$6
economics 0% −$3
culture 0% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +20.3% +8.8% 61% 57% +22.2%
≤30d 26 +40.3% +26.9% 62% 58% +22.4%
≤90d 35 +7.4% -2.8% 49% 46% -77.9%
all 477 -5.3% -14.4% 34% 28% -56.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 28% -56.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 25% -60.9%
15% -30.0% 22% -64.7%
20% -36.9% 19% -68.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$76 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$18,818
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses160 / 317
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)477 / 481
History coverage118d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 477 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 40¢ 52¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+31%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 62¢ 69¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $103 +$71 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $411 +$196 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 26 $179 +$89 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $257 +$170 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $182 +$303 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $363 +$432 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $230 −$78 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $103 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $128 +$83 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $79 +$164 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $139 +$122 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $113 +$53 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 26 $141 −$141 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $84 +$162 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $272 +$38 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 26 $334 −$334 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $73 −$73 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$28 +567%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$6 +114%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? May 08 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? May 08 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Apr 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026? Apr 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $25 −$25 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $90 +$10 +11%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 01 $15,134 −$14,706 -97%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 01 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 18? Mar 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on March 18? Mar 18 $30 +$29 +96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 18? Mar 18 $20 +$69 +354%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 24-25°F on March 17 Mar 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Mar 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on March 17? Mar 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on March 17? Mar 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 46-47°F on March 17 Mar 17 $35 +$14 +39%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 17? Mar 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Miami Open, Qualification: Kimberly Birrell vs Yue Yuan Mar 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Miami Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Talia Gibson Mar 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 17? Mar 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 17? Mar 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Miami Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Rebecca Sramkova Mar 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 17? Mar 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $174 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $607 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $268 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.32 · official $20.32 (match) · 2842 history records