Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:06:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5B 0x5bb5…8ab9 world 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$765 (+19%) realized +$817 · open −$52
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate62%49W / 30L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$132
14 days+$513
30 days+$442
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$647
politics 29% −$216
other 23% +$244
economics 6% +$41
tech 3% −$3
crypto 1% +$37
sports 1% −$10
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +105.9% +86.3% 100% 100% +82.3%
≤30d 12 +11.3% +0.7% 50% 42% +44.4%
≤90d 59 +36.2% +23.2% 59% 42% +10.3%
all 79 +37.4% +24.3% 62% 42% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.3% 42% +10.3%
10% +12.4% 30% -0.2%
15% +1.6% 27% -9.9%
20% -8.4% 22% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +52% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$22 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$817
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses49 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage142d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026? Yes 10¢ $162 $138 −$24 (-15%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes $30 $2 −$27 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in Jun 26 $61 +$117 +190%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $68 +$15 +22%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $139 +$455 +328%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 17 $12 +$2 +18%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 14 $30 −$23 -75%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $59 −$19 -32%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 01 $183 +$5 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $44 +$37 +84%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 29 $49 −$49 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $45 −$45 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $124 +$90 +73%
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? May 20 $122 −$22 -18%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? May 20 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $50 +$28 +57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Starmer say "Oil" or "Gas" during the next Prime Minister's Quest May 20 $21 +$19 +89%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? May 18 $60 −$23 -39%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $56 +$1 +3%
Will Starmer say "Northern Ireland" during the next Prime Minister's Q May 13 $65 −$65 -99%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $140 −$66 -47%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 13 $82 −$11 -14%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in May 2026? May 12 $30 +$11 +38%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 11 $110 +$61 +56%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 10 $20 +$10 +49%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $50 −$17 -34%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $100 +$138 +138%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 07 $40 +$9 +22%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 06 $100 +$33 +33%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? May 01 $40 +$7 +17%
Will Trump say "Discombobulator" or "Discombobulated" in May? Apr 30 $176 −$167 -94%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 24 $103 +$82 +80%
Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed? Apr 24 $50 +$3 +7%
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April Apr 24 $170 +$37 +22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $65 +$18 +28%
Weed rescheduled by June 30? Apr 23 $160 +$11 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 21 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30? Apr 21 $20 +$16 +81%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $25 +$84 +335%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Apr 15 $20 +$41 +207%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $40 +$15 +38%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 14 $10 −$1 -15%
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? Apr 10 $30 −$23 -77%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 10 $20 −$12 -62%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Apr 10 $20 −$3 -16%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 10 $20 +$2 +11%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $20 +$3 +14%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 08 $40 −$10 -25%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 08 $20 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL Yes 52¢ $178 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 17¢ $61 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $83 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $30 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $68 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 75¢ $0 7d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 75¢ $503 7d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 15¢ $25 7d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 13¢ $7 7d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 11¢ $51 7d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $7 8d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $7 8d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $12 8d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 26¢ $51 8d
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $22 8d
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY No 15¢ $30 8d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 19¢ $38 8d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $7 11d
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $58 13d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 29¢ $16 14d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 29¢ $23 14d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 14d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 14d
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 20d
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 23d
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $25 23d
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $258 23d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $40 24d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? SELL Yes $69 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.34 · official $140.34 (match) · 277 history records