Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:45:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bb6…31c5 sports 1173 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$145 (-4%) realized −$140 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate49%567W / 593L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day59.7pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$57
14 days−$55
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$28
other 8% −$86
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 480 +2.3% -7.5% 52% 39% -6.2%
≤30d 1160 -4.3% -13.4% 49% 39% -11.8%
≤90d 1160 -4.3% -13.4% 49% 39% -11.8%
all 1160 -4.3% -13.4% 49% 39% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 39% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 32% -20.3%
15% -29.3% 27% -28.0%
20% -36.2% 24% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$140
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses567 / 593
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1160 / 1173
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day59.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 1160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Francesco Maestrelli 41¢ 32¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Nicolas Mejia 46¢ 57¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Will GV CD San José win on 2026-05-12? No 39¢ 53¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+36%)
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 41¢ 23¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-44%)
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Elias Ymer 42¢ 46¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal Sumit Nagal 45¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea Anton Matusevich 41¢ 44¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 51¢ 53¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 51¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Pierre Delage 25¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Tomas Barrios 29¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jack Pinnington Jones 43¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Billy Harris 43¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Henrique Rocha 52¢ 30¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Flavio Cobolli 44¢ 17¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunis: Tristan Boyer vs Inaki Montes Jun 15 $0 −$1 -716%
Francavilla: Juan Carlos Prado vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 15 $0 −$3 -2132%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ugo Humbert vs Vit Kopriva Jun 15 $0 −$3 -1033%
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jun 15 $3 −$3 -92%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $3 +$5 +180%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $3 −$1 -45%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli Jun 15 $3 −$1 -44%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $3 −$2 -63%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $3 −$2 -60%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $3 −$1 -48%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $3 +$4 +144%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $3 −$2 -64%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $3 +$4 +138%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $3 −$1 -50%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $3 −$2 -63%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $3 −$2 -57%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $3 −$2 -52%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $3 −$2 -62%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $3 −$1 -50%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +82%
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs Eternal Fire Academy (BO3) - TESFE Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $3 −$2 -83%
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $6 +$5 +85%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $5 +$4 +75%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $3 +$3 +85%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $3 +$3 +92%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +59%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $6 −$3 -47%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $2 −$1 -72%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $3 −$3 -90%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $3 −$2 -62%
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $2 +$3 +138%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $3 −$3 -86%
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AS FAR win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +203%
Will Stabaek IF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $3 1m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $2 1m
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke SELL Tristan Boyer 4¢ $0 19m
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Pierre Delage 25¢ $3 38m
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini SELL Alessandra Mazzola 18¢ $2 1h
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 43¢ $2 1h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli SELL Laurent Lokoli 15¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda SELL Zachary Svajda 11¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan SELL Mia Pohankova 17¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Tomas Barrios 29¢ $0 1h
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea BUY Anton Matusevich 41¢ $0 1h
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal BUY Sumit Nagal 45¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Tomas Barrios 29¢ $1 1h
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle BUY Elias Ymer 42¢ $3 1h
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal BUY Sumit Nagal 45¢ $2 1h
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea BUY Anton Matusevich 41¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones SELL Francesca Jones 14¢ $2 1h
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli BUY Francesco Maestrelli 41¢ $3 2h
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli BUY Francesco Maestrelli 41¢ $3 2h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 44¢ $3 2h
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea BUY Anton Matusevich 41¢ $2 2h
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche BUY Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 41¢ $3 2h
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche BUY Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 41¢ $3 2h
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Henrique Rocha 52¢ $3 2h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Nuno Borges 11¢ $1 2h
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke BUY Tristan Boyer 48¢ $3 3h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Aoi Ito 14¢ $2 3h
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Tomas Barrios 29¢ $2 3h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 29¢ $3 3h
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova SELL Anastasia Potapova 18¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.38 · official $49.38 · 3500 history records