Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:51:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5B 0x5bb7…6f64 world 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$7,476 (+300%) realized +$7,706 · open −$230
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%14W / 58L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$120
14 days+$4,774
30 days+$4,636
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$7,662
other 19% −$241
crypto 10% −$45
politics 5% −$112
sports 3% +$82
weather 3% −$58
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -50.1% -54.9% 14% 14% -72.6%
≤30d 24 +61.7% +46.3% 33% 33% +122.6%
≤90d 72 +20.9% +9.4% 19% 19% +174.7%
all 72 +20.9% +9.4% 19% 19% +174.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.4% 19% +174.7%
10% -1.1% 19% +148.4%
15% -10.7% 19% +124.4%
20% -19.4% 18% +102.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +382% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +382% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$622 vs −$21 · ×29.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.27 per $1 lost it wins $7.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized+$7,706
Unrealized−$230
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses14 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)72 / 81
History coverage83d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $193 $140 −$53 (-27%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $109 $22 −$88 (-80%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $111 $16 −$95 (-85%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $8 −$7 -92%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $11 −$3 -28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $115 −$111 -96%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $9 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 21? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -92%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Jun 19 $16 +$28 +177%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Jun 18 $197 −$189 -96%
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $10 +$15 +140%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$8 +40%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $37 +$74 +198%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$29 +136%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $75 +$5,013 +6691%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $43 −$40 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$5 +50%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $122 −$103 -85%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $25 −$24 -94%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? May 30 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 30 $5 −$2 -33%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $3 −$1 -28%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 28 $4 −$3 -76%
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 28 $10 −$7 -72%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE? May 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $59 −$54 -92%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $6 −$6 -92%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 16 $5 −$5 -93%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 16 $32 −$30 -93%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $28 −$27 -96%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22? May 16 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? May 15 $12 −$10 -84%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $29 −$24 -83%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 13 $45 −$40 -88%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 20, 2026? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 12 $20 −$13 -67%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 18, 2026? May 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? May 11 $1 +$2 +250%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 9? May 09 $4 −$4 -95%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $23 +$346 +1510%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 29 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? Apr 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? Apr 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $13 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2 BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30 BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $86 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 40¢ $11 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $32 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $6 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $17 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $9 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $6 5d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 5d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 21? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $21 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $24 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $13 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 7d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.70 · official $220.40 (match) · 231 history records