Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:48:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bc0…8d47 crypto 861 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$52 (-3%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate69%592W / 269L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$9
14 days−$12
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$80
other 0% −$2
world 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +3.5% -6.3% 70% 66% -16.0%
≤30d 654 +3.3% -6.5% 75% 42% -12.2%
≤90d 664 +2.8% -7.0% 75% 42% -12.4%
all 861 -0.6% -10.1% 69% 41% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 41% -13.5%
10% -18.7% 21% -21.8%
15% -26.5% 6% -29.4%
20% -33.7% 1% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses592 / 269
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)861 / 861
History coverage95d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 861 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $0 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $0 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2608 history records