Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:09:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
5B 0x5bc3…1fa2 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$241 (+21%) realized +$243 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate84%16W / 3L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$42
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$219
other 19% −$2
world 13% +$15
tech 2% $0
weather 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -20.4% -27.9% 50% 50% -28.6%
≤90d 15 +14.5% +3.6% 80% 47% +14.4%
all 19 +11.7% +1.0% 84% 37% +12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 37% +12.4%
10% -8.6% 26% +1.6%
15% -17.5% 21% -8.2%
20% -25.6% 11% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$91 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$243
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses16 / 3
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage170d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 39¢ 38¢ $159 $157 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $118 +$42 +36%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $65 −$64 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $153 −$150 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 21 $99 +$82 +83%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Play May 13 $117 +$339 +291%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Esprit Shōnen (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 13 $59 +$14 +24%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? May 06 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? May 06 $13 +$1 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 06 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? May 06 $12 +$2 +17%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? May 06 $27 $0 +1%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 06 $38 +$15 +38%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? May 06 $87 +$12 +14%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 28 $60 −$59 -100%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31? Feb 03 $25 $0 +2%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $12 end of January? Feb 03 $25 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela ceasefire by January 31? Feb 03 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $375 before 2026?? Jan 10 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.69 · official $156.69 (match) · 36 history records