Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:10:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bc4…f44f sports 537 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 141d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$21,509 (-7%) realized −$27,923 · open +$6,414
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%250W / 665L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$615per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$13,820now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 142d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$15,328
other 13% +$33,571
politics 5% −$1,327
world 3% +$1,146
crypto 0% +$1,925
culture 0% −$230
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-45.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 392 -98.6% -98.7% 1% 1% -99.3%
≤30d 403 -96.1% -96.5% 2% 1% -96.4%
≤90d 418 -88.7% -89.8% 3% 3% -92.9%
all 915 -39.4% -45.2% 27% 27% -42.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.2% 27% -42.3%
10% -50.4% 26% -47.8%
15% ← realistic here -55.2% 25% -52.8%
20% -59.6% 23% -57.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -92% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$720) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -77% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$638 vs −$491 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$13,820
Realized−$27,923
Unrealized+$6,414
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses250 / 665
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions16
Markets (closed)915 / 537
History coverage142d ⚠
Avg bet$615
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 915 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 39¢ 82¢ $2,291 $4,825 +$2,534 (+111%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 12¢ 60¢ $679 $3,521 +$2,842 (+419%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 57¢ 62¢ $975 $1,046 +$71 (+7%)
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 33¢ $237 $976 +$739 (+312%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ $420 $678 +$258 (+61%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 74¢ 84¢ $518 $584 +$66 (+13%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 47¢ 52¢ $466 $525 +$59 (+13%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 41¢ 54¢ $300 $400 +$100 (+33%)
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? No 11¢ 12¢ $301 $348 +$47 (+16%)
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $388 $338 −$50 (-13%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $300 $318 +$18 (+6%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 31¢ 17¢ $310 $170 −$140 (-45%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $65 $54 −$11 (-17%)
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? Yes 19¢ $148 $35 −$113 (-76%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-59%)
Will Chris Madel win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 484 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kings vs. Celtics Jun 25 $740 −$740 -100%
Bucks vs. Mavericks Jun 25 $221 −$221 -100%
Will Lazio win on 2025-11-03? Jun 25 $160 −$160 -100%
Spread: Steelers (-5.5) Jun 25 $500 −$500 -100%
Panthers vs. Red Wings Jun 25 $392 −$392 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $274 −$274 -100%
Jets vs. Flyers Jun 25 $146 −$146 -100%
Steelers vs. Jets Jun 25 $600 −$600 -100%
Sharks vs. Utah: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $252 −$252 -100%
Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 48.5 Jun 25 $510 −$510 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $601 −$601 -100%
Kings vs. Panthers Jun 25 $263 −$183 -70%
Oilers vs. Maple Leafs Jun 25 $360 −$360 -100%
Hornets vs. Pacers Jun 25 $265 −$265 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Panthers Jun 25 $560 −$560 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 224.5 Jun 25 $54 −$54 -100%
Penguins vs. Kings Jun 25 $192 −$192 -100%
Sabres vs. Devils Jun 25 $900 −$900 -100%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-29? Jun 25 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? Jun 25 $292 −$287 -98%
Predators vs. Kraken Jun 25 $260 −$260 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 25 $204 −$204 -100%
Raptors vs. Pacers Jun 25 $270 −$270 -100%
Spread: Capitals (-1.5) Jun 25 $1,236 −$1,236 -100%
Royals vs. Guardians Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
UTSA Roadrunners vs. North Texas Mean Green: O/U 138.5 Jun 25 $384 −$384 -100%
Blues vs. Panthers Jun 25 $671 −$671 -100%
Wild vs. Kings Jun 25 $613 −$613 -100%
Padres vs. Mets Jun 25 $523 −$523 -100%
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 25 $79 −$79 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $230 −$230 -100%
Utah vs. Ducks Jun 25 $171 −$171 -100%
Spread: LSU (-7.0) Jun 25 $300 −$300 -100%
Rangers vs. Flames Jun 25 $594 −$594 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win Staten Island? Jun 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Jun 25 $440 −$440 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Chelsea end in a draw? Jun 25 $130 −$130 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Sabres Jun 25 $800 −$800 -100%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jun 25 $495 −$495 -100%
Spread: Sabres (-1.5) Jun 25 $495 −$495 -100%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 25 $295 −$295 -100%
Heat vs. Timberwolves Jun 25 $360 −$360 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) Jun 25 $255 −$255 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-3.5) Jun 25 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Feyenoord win on 2025-10-02? Jun 25 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Jun 25 $239 −$239 -100%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Jun 25 $125 −$125 -100%
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford Jun 25 $801 −$801 -100%
Ducks vs. Islanders Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $205 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 41¢ $305 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 61¢ $370 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 61¢ $370 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $355 2d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 59¢ $77 2d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 58¢ $9 2d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 58¢ $9 2d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 58¢ $8 2d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 58¢ $8 2d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 58¢ $7 2d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 58¢ $7 2d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 58¢ $4 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $34 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $20 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $19 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $304 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $20 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $62 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $4 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $34 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 3d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 46¢ $21 3d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 46¢ $4 3d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 46¢ $1 3d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 46¢ $2 3d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 46¢ $10 3d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 46¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,819.93 · official $13,498.02 · 3500 history records