Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:09:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bc5…a9e9 crypto 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$405 (-10%) realized −$405 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate74%63W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$449
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -9.6% -18.2% 74% 74% -20.0%
≤30d 85 -9.6% -18.2% 74% 74% -20.0%
≤90d 85 -9.6% -18.2% 74% 74% -20.0%
all 85 -9.6% -18.2% 74% 74% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 74% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 22% -27.6%
15% -33.2% 7% -34.6%
20% -39.7% 4% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$48 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$405
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses63 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage6d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$31 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $38 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $45 −$45 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $45 +$16 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $44 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $47 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $54 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $44 −$43 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $57 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $55 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $65 +$21 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $64 +$18 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $39 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $42 −$42 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $42 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $42 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $41 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $39 +$15 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $36 +$28 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $35 −$34 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $39 +$6 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $32 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $32 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $35 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $36 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $38 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $40 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $45 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $45 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $44 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $42 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $41 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 247 history records