Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:41:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5B 0x5bc5…c64d other 551 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,286 (+11%) realized +$1,294 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%275W / 228L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$492now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$356
7 days+$499
14 days+$757
30 days+$689
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$1,124
sports 4% +$81
culture 1% +$11
world 0% +$9
weather 0% +$15
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +69.5% +53.3% 75% 72% +52.3%
≤30d 256 +25.8% +13.8% 52% 48% +9.2%
≤90d 497 +32.9% +20.3% 54% 45% +0.9%
all 503 +32.6% +20.0% 55% 45% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.0% 45% +0.9%
10% +8.5% 43% -8.8%
15% -2.0% 38% -17.6%
20% -11.6% 33% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$492
Realized+$1,294
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses275 / 228
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions48
Markets (closed)503 / 551
History coverage92d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 503 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a PGA Tour player win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? No 56¢ 60¢ $42 $45 +$3 (+8%)
Will Collin Morikawa finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? No 29¢ 46¢ $22 $35 +$13 (+60%)
Will the match end in a draw? No 98¢ 90¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-8%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 21¢ 62¢ $8 $23 +$15 (+198%)
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? No 43¢ 72¢ $11 $19 +$8 (+67%)
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ shots on target Yes 20¢ 33¢ $11 $18 +$7 (+67%)
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? No 36¢ 40¢ $13 $15 +$1 (+10%)
Will a player from England win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+12%)
Will a LIV player win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 58¢ 98¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+68%)
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? No 34¢ 56¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+63%)
Will Stade Francais win? Yes 18¢ 35¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+94%)
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 TOUR Championship? No 85¢ 95¢ $8 $10 +$1 (+12%)
Will Wyndham Clark finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? No 41¢ 12¢ $30 $9 −$21 (-70%)
Will a player from the United States of America win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? No 37¢ 16¢ $16 $7 −$9 (-55%)
Gustaf Nilsson: 2+ shots Yes 38¢ 34¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-10%)
Gustaf Nilsson: 1+ shots Yes 61¢ 38¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-37%)
Anthony Valencia: 3+ shots Yes 29¢ 50¢ $4 $6 +$3 (+71%)
Will Cameron Young finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? No 35¢ 83¢ $3 $6 +$4 (+137%)
Noa Lang: 2+ shots Yes 42¢ 36¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-16%)
Noa Lang: 1+ shots Yes 51¢ 40¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-22%)
Justin Kluivert: 1+ shots Yes 56¢ 39¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-31%)
Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots Yes 25¢ 30¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
Anthony Valencia: 2+ shots Yes 47¢ 60¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Emiliano Grillo win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $21 +$6 +26%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $57 +$17 +29%
Will Chiefs win? Jun 20 $1 +$2 +144%
Will Chiefs win the 2026 Super Rugby Pacific Grand Final? Jun 20 $4 +$3 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +68%
Will Patrick Cantlay finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $4 +$3 +82%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $33 +$9 +27%
Will Brooks Koepka finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $11 +$7 +60%
Will Andrew Novak make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $4 +$7 +186%
Will Carlos Ortiz make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $5 +$12 +257%
Will Kristoffer Reitan make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $13 +$27 +203%
Will Cameron Smith make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $51 +$24 +47%
Will Nathan Kimsey make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $9 +$31 +354%
Will Brandon Wu make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $3 +$1 +47%
Will Bryson DeChambeau make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $10 +$65 +669%
Will Rickie Fowler make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $4 +$35 +849%
Will Patrick Reed make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $11 +$46 +400%
Will J.B. Holmes make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $24 +$11 +47%
Will Robert MacIntyre make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bulls win the 2026 United Rugby Championship Grand Final? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $48 +$27 +56%
Will Chris Gotterup make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Joaquin Niemann make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Leinster win the 2026 United Rugby Championship Grand Final? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 19 $0 $0 +134%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 19 $18 +$8 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 19 $3 +$3 +128%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 19 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 19 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +91%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 19 $1 $0 -2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 19 $3 +$3 +90%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 +$2 +72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 19 $5 $0 -2%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 19 $3 +$1 +39%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 19 $2 +$2 +92%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 +$1 +52%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -35%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 19 $1 $0 +17%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +87%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +145%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 19 $0 +$1 +125%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +95%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 19 $1 $0 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russell Henley finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 69¢ $1 3m
Will Exeter Chiefs win the 2026 English Premiership Rugby Final? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will Exeter Chiefs win the 2026 English Premiership Rugby Final? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will Exeter Chiefs win the 2026 English Premiership Rugby Final? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will Exeter Chiefs win the 2026 English Premiership Rugby Final? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will Exeter Chiefs win the 2026 English Premiership Rugby Final? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Exeter Chiefs win the 2026 English Premiership Rugby Final? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will Exeter Chiefs win the 2026 English Premiership Rugby Final? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will Exeter Chiefs win the 2026 English Premiership Rugby Final? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will Northampton Saints win the 2026 English Premiership Rugby Final? SELL Yes 99¢ $147 1h
Will Northampton Saints win the 2026 English Premiership Rugby Final? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 1h
Will Northampton Saints win the 2026 English Premiership Rugby Final? BUY Yes 97¢ $19 1h
Will Northampton Saints win the 2026 English Premiership Rugby Final? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 1h
Will Northampton Saints win the 2026 English Premiership Rugby Final? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 1h
Will the match end in a draw? BUY No 98¢ $28 1h
Will a PGA Tour player win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 2h
Will a PGA Tour player win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 2h
Viktor Gyökeres: 5+ shots BUY No 71¢ $4 2h
Will Emiliano Grillo win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 100¢ $26 2h
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 98¢ $74 2h
Will a player from the United States of America win the 2026 U.S. Open BUY No 23¢ $31 3h
Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots BUY Yes 27¢ $3 3h
Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots BUY Yes 52¢ $4 3h
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ shots on target BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3h
Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots BUY Yes 45¢ $4 3h
Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots BUY Yes 53¢ $4 3h
Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots BUY Yes 32¢ $3 3h
Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots BUY Yes 36¢ $4 3h
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ shots on target BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3h
Justin Kluivert: 1+ shots BUY Yes 55¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $491.70 · official $491.24 (match) · 1529 history records