Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:54:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

5B 0x5bc8…7203 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$87 (-6%) realized −$87 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR18%break-even

Win rate24%4W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$77per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit61%portable

Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days+$6

30 days+$6

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +18%

net ROI/market (all)-15.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	+6.9%	-3.3%	100%	0%	-3.3%
≤90d	5	-15.4%	-23.4%	40%	20%	-21.3%
all	17	-6.9%	-15.8%	24%	18%	-15.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.8%	18%	-15.4%
10%	-23.9%	6%	-23.5%
15%	-31.2%	6%	-30.8%
20%	-38.0%	6%	-37.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 92% · top 2 96% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -13% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -5% → late -9% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$41 vs −$21 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.66 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage

Net worth$39

Realized−$87

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)24%

Wins / losses4 / 13

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage129d

Avg bet$77

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	92¢	92¢	$39	$39	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	Jun 11	$83	+$6	+7%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	Apr 29	$3	−$3	-100%
Hurricanes vs. Islanders	Apr 15	$130	+$153	+117%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Apr 01	$208	−$3	-1%
Heat vs. Rockets	Mar 28	$239	−$239	-100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Mar 18	$99	$0	-0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Mar 18	$99	$0	-0%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Masters tournament?	Mar 14	$99	$0	-0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	Mar 14	$100	$0	-0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Mar 09	$10	+$2	+19%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament?	Mar 09	$22	+$5	+22%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Mar 05	$18	$0	+0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Feb 28	$11	−$1	-7%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Feb 24	$13	−$1	-6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m	Feb 20	$199	$0	-0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February?	Feb 18	$4	−$2	-50%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Feb 16	$12	−$2	-18%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	92¢	$39	1h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	SELL No	94¢	$89	13d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	BUY No	88¢	$83	30d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	BUY Yes	2¢	$3	55d
Hurricanes vs. Islanders	BUY Hurricanes	46¢	$130	71d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	88¢	$206	84d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	89¢	$208	86d
Heat vs. Rockets	BUY Heat	46¢	$239	95d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	SELL No	99¢	$99	98d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	SELL No	98¢	$98	98d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	BUY No	99¢	$99	100d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	BUY No	99¢	$99	100d
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Masters tournament?	SELL No	99¢	$99	101d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	SELL No	99¢	$99	101d
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Masters tournament?	BUY No	99¢	$99	103d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$100	103d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	SELL Yes	2¢	$11	106d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament?	SELL Yes	5¢	$27	106d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament?	BUY Yes	4¢	$22	108d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	108d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	2¢	$18	111d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	2¢	$18	112d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	1¢	$10	116d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	1¢	$11	117d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$12	120d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$13	121d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m	SELL No	99¢	$198	124d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m	BUY No	99¢	$199	125d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February?	SELL Yes	0¢	$2	125d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February?	BUY Yes	1¢	$4	127d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.79 · official $38.79 (match) · 39 history records