Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bca…b4e7 crypto 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3454 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1,623 (-7%) realized −$1,631 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate56%28W / 22L
Whale WR23%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$474per market
Trades / day3454.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$556
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3454 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +11.6% +1.0% 56% 26% -13.4%
≤30d 50 +11.6% +1.0% 56% 26% -13.4%
≤90d 50 +11.6% +1.0% 56% 26% -13.4%
all 50 +11.6% +1.0% 56% 26% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3454.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.0% 26% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -8.7% 12% -21.7%
15% -17.5% 2% -29.3%
20% -25.6% 2% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 23% (≥$709) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
75.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$121 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$1,631
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses28 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 46
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$474
Trades / day3454.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 68¢ 78¢ $52 $61 +$8 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $249 −$249 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $73 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $146 +$24 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $111 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $56 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $182 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $679 −$204 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $726 −$128 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $197 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $533 +$67 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $893 −$274 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $636 +$86 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $623 −$215 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $793 −$30 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $116 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $299 +$61 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $995 −$132 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $425 +$99 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $357 +$69 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $347 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $368 +$94 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $754 +$34 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $769 −$198 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $415 −$96 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $358 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $737 +$77 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $536 +$44 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $179 +$51 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $618 −$122 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $513 −$87 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $286 +$55 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $707 −$92 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $510 +$50 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $1,011 −$168 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $742 −$159 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $885 −$262 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $319 +$27 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $437 +$31 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $405 +$122 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $169 +$25 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $709 −$32 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $713 +$47 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $861 −$77 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $478 −$8 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $56 +$594 +1056%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 14m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.61 · official $59.07 · 3500 history records