Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:41:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bcb…8c21 crypto 303 markets active 2h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$516 (-3%) realized −$440 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%85W / 217L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$186
7 days−$451
14 days−$581
30 days−$581
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$2,206
sports 7% −$716
other 6% +$1,022
politics 1% −$198
economics 1% −$100
tech 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -7.5% -16.4% 16% 16% -33.0%
≤30d 26 -11.1% -19.6% 15% 15% -37.7%
≤90d 26 -11.1% -19.6% 15% 15% -37.7%
all 302 -15.3% -23.4% 28% 25% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 25% -20.9%
10% -30.7% 21% -28.4%
15% -37.4% 17% -35.4%
20% -43.6% 15% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$34 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized−$440
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses85 / 217
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)302 / 303
History coverage228d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 44¢ $320 $244 −$76 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 134 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $327 −$3 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $93 −$15 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $123 −$118 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $509 −$507 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $72 +$382 +532%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$30 -94%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $77 −$46 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$49 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$16 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$10 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $53 +$146 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$5 -19%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $14 +$79 +549%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $82 −$80 -97%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 13 $133 −$130 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jan 06 $40 −$27 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jan 06 $17 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 06 $62 −$8 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 06 $63 −$3 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jan 06 $200 −$9 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jan 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jan 06 $46 −$26 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jan 06 $48 −$21 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jan 06 $21 +$36 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 02 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 02 $105 +$25 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 02 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 02 $108 +$50 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 02 $27 −$24 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 02 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 02 $60 +$185 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 02 $60 −$20 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 02 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jan 02 $40 +$43 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 02 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jan 02 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jan 02 $20 +$23 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $324 1h
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL France 36¢ $323 2h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $327 13h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $78 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $18 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 0¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 72¢ $454 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $75 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.99 · official $243.99 (match) · 1088 history records