Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:21:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bcb…374b other 362 markets active 15h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$873 (-6%) realized −$856 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%151W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$556
7 days−$716
14 days−$868
30 days−$464
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$81
sports 26% −$154
crypto 11% −$865
culture 2% +$4
world 0% −$8
politics 0% −$8
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -6.6% -15.5% 33% 33% -36.2%
≤30d 275 -4.0% -13.1% 43% 41% -13.8%
≤90d 288 -5.8% -14.8% 42% 41% -19.2%
all 351 -8.0% -16.7% 43% 42% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 42% -15.6%
10% -24.7% 40% -23.7%
15% -32.0% 36% -31.0%
20% -38.6% 32% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$27 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$856
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses151 / 200
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions4
Markets (closed)351 / 362
History coverage163d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 351 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $28 $22 −$6 (-21%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$7 +45%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $83 −$83 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Wil Jun 17 $10 +$22 +216%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira Jun 17 $5 +$34 +657%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $403 −$403 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$17 +393%
Spread: Fortaleza EC (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $223 −$223 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $323 +$78 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 +$33 +162%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$22 +213%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$5 -44%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $15 +$15 +101%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Criciúma EC 2 - 0 Ceará SC? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $152 −$9 -6%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $27 +$49 +184%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $18 +$13 +70%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $16 +$39 +236%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 15h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 16h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 39¢ $5 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 7¢ $1 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 54¢ $70 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $81 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $403 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 38h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $10 38h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $4 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $4 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $203 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $198 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 40h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $18 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $71 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.40 · official $36.40 · 945 history records