Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:54:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

5B 0x5bce…d19e sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized +$19 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate59%13W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$21per market

Trades / day2.6pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit91%portable

Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days+$12

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)-8.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	22	+1.6%	-8.0%	59%	55%	-6.5%
≤90d	22	+1.6%	-8.0%	59%	55%	-6.5%
all	22	+1.6%	-8.0%	59%	55%	-6.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.0%	55%	-6.5%
10%	-16.8%	41%	-15.4%
15%	-24.9%	41%	-23.6%
20%	-32.2%	41%	-31.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.1 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage

Net worth$41

Realized+$19

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)59%

Wins / losses13 / 9

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage28d

Avg bet$21

Trades / day2.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	39¢	32¢	$49	$41	−$8 (-17%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	May 31	$5	+$9	+166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	May 31	$5	+$5	+90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	May 30	$5	−$5	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	May 30	$26	+$23	+88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	May 30	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$13	−$13	-98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner	May 30	$34	+$5	+15%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif	May 30	$15	+$10	+64%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner	May 30	$7	−$7	-98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	May 30	$11	−$11	-100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	May 30	$11	+$9	+80%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner	May 30	$8	+$6	+71%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	May 29	$38	+$25	+67%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	May 29	$50	−$10	-20%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	May 29	$15	−$15	-98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	May 29	$62	−$36	-59%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	May 29	$13	−$4	-32%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	May 28	$11	+$9	+88%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	May 27	$10	+$7	+66%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	May 27	$27	+$5	+18%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	May 27	$10	$0	+1%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	May 27	$57	+$11	+20%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	39¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$5	24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$48	24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$5	24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$26	24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$5	24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$5	24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$5	24d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	22¢	$10	25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	22¢	$3	25d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner	SELL Team Yandex	92¢	$28	25d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner	BUY Team Yandex	65¢	$20	25d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner	SELL Team Spirit	36¢	$11	25d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif	SELL Aurora	99¢	$20	25d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner	BUY Team Spirit	43¢	$14	25d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner	BUY Team Spirit	14¢	$2	25d
Games Total: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$11	25d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner	BUY Team Spirit	39¢	$5	25d
Games Total: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	99¢	$20	25d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif	BUY Aurora	50¢	$10	25d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif	SELL Tundra Esports	67¢	$0	25d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner	SELL Tundra Esports	99¢	$14	25d
Games Total: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$11	25d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif	SELL Tundra Esports	44¢	$0	25d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif	SELL Tundra Esports	43¢	$5	25d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner	BUY Tundra Esports	57¢	$8	25d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif	BUY Tundra Esports	42¢	$5	25d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	SELL LGD Gaming	87¢	$63	26d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	BUY LGD Gaming	51¢	$38	26d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	BUY Team Yandex	50¢	$5	26d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.62 · official $40.62 (match) · 76 history records