Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5bd3…394c sports 415 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16,376 (-5%) realized −$16,337 · open −$39
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%198W / 208L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$866per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$653est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$14,058now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15,503
7 days+$10,566
14 days+$10,566
30 days+$11,358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$18,129
other 14% +$4,088
world 2% −$3,048
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +9.7% -0.7% 66% 53% +3.9%
≤30d 41 +12.2% +1.5% 68% 59% +3.9%
≤90d 43 +9.9% -0.5% 67% 58% +3.7%
all 406 -7.9% -16.7% 49% 47% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 47% -14.0%
10% -24.6% 45% -22.2%
15% -31.9% 40% -29.7%
20% -38.6% 35% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$1,001) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$700 vs −$748 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$14,058
Realized−$16,337
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses198 / 208
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$653
Open positions9
Markets (closed)406 / 415
History coverage141d
Avg bet$866
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 406 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? No 96¢ 97¢ $3,000 $3,008 +$8 (+0%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $2,886 $2,867 −$19 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? No 92¢ 92¢ $1,990 $1,979 −$11 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1,612 $1,595 −$17 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1,392 $1,364 −$28 (-2%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 52¢ $1,202 $1,214 +$12 (+1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? No 97¢ 97¢ $806 $810 +$4 (+1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 82¢ 81¢ $600 $596 −$4 (-1%)
Portugal leading at halftime? No 43¢ 42¢ $433 $428 −$5 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 50¢ 50¢ $195 $197 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 191 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $4,436 +$5,230 +118%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,613 −$1,548 -43%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $6,243 −$1,772 -28%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,272 +$2,295 +101%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1,394 −$1,373 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $313 +$22 +7%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $801 +$22 +3%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $469 +$121 +26%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3,773 +$3,247 +86%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1,364 +$1,434 +105%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1,497 +$126 +8%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1,001 +$30 +3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5,371 +$1,324 +25%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,621 +$2,003 +124%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,424 −$1,400 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3,034 −$3,000 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,186 +$5,743 +180%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1,394 −$1,392 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $491 −$483 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3,103 +$2,894 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3,995 +$2,007 +50%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2,235 −$2,204 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,241 +$764 +34%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $561 +$567 +101%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,109 −$1,092 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5,873 −$5,822 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4,789 +$855 +18%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1,040 +$859 +83%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $559 +$211 +38%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $200 +$72 +36%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,956 +$853 +44%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $1,903 +$791 +42%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 28 $332 +$108 +32%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? May 28 $420 +$143 +34%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 28 $378 +$431 +114%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? May 24 $449 −$446 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $715 −$704 -98%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? May 19 $65 +$22 +34%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $192 +$194 +101%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? May 19 $783 +$253 +32%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 17 $684 +$187 +27%
Everton FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 May 15 $258 −$254 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Mar 19 $233 −$188 -80%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Mar 19 $63 +$17 +27%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) Mar 18 $308 −$308 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 18 $97 −$97 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Mar 18 $298 −$172 -58%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $375 +$250 +67%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $288 −$288 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $819 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $819 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 97¢ $807 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 92¢ $1,995 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 96¢ $3,003 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $603 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1,423 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $440 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $1,220 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $198 5h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 47¢ $2,032 5h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 47¢ $2,032 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $2,175 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $726 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $1,211 8h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $1,394 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1,221 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1,221 8h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $469 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,136 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,136 23h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY No 93¢ $313 23h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? BUY No 97¢ $439 23h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? BUY No 97¢ $361 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $835 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $682 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $681 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,469 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,469 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $1,453 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,058.47 · official $14,058.55 (match) · 1006 history records