Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:50:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bd7…dc83 crypto 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$120 (-7%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%12W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$296
7 days+$296
14 days+$198
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$411
crypto 34% −$233
sports 18% +$533
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-45.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +104.0% +84.5% 67% 67% +39.5%
≤30d 42 -33.6% -40.0% 29% 29% -7.1%
≤90d 44 -36.7% -42.7% 27% 27% -15.1%
all 46 -39.4% -45.2% 26% 26% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.2% 26% -15.6%
10% -50.4% 26% -23.7%
15% -55.2% 26% -31.1%
20% -59.6% 26% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$33 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses12 / 34
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage159d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $195 +$204 +105%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $247 −$242 -98%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $109 +$333 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $38 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $82 −$80 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$55 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$28 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$12 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +87%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $97 +$197 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 02 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 02 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $48 +$76 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $96 −$94 -98%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $55 −$54 -98%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31? Jan 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $399 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $195 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $247 4h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $442 4h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $109 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $38 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 12d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 12d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 12d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $96 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $21 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $21 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $44 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $16 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $15 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records