Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:16:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5B 0x5bda…1aa0 crypto 527 markets active 21h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$479 (-0%) realized −$479 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%508W / 19L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$8
30 days−$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$567
weather 7% +$71
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 41 -0.6% -10.1% 98% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 205 +0.2% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.6%
all 527 -0.5% -10.0% 96% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 1% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$51 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$479
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses508 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)527 / 527
History coverage252d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 527 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $184 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $184 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $183 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $182 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $182 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8? Jun 10 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $182 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $181 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $181 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $480 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $478 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $478 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $113 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $360 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $476 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $471 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $680 −$216 -32%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $686 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $251 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $435 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $683 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $683 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $682 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 27? May 28 $682 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 27 $281 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 25? May 26 $680 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25? May 25 $679 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 18-24? May 25 $679 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 23? May 24 $678 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23? May 23 $678 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? May 23 $677 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $676 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $675 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 19 $674 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 18? May 19 $673 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $673 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 17? May 18 $672 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17? May 17 $672 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 16? May 16 $671 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? May 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 15? May 16 $570 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 14? May 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 13? May 14 $201 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $184 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $184 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $184 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $184 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $183 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $183 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $183 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $183 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $182 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $182 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $182 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $182 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $182 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $181 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $180 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $181 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $480 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $478 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $478 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $360 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 99¢ $113 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $476 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $476 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $471 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 3? SELL No 70¢ $464 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $680 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $686 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $251 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $435 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $683 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1165 history records