Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bda…b5af crypto 585 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$922 (-2%) realized −$922 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate82%480W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$23
14 days−$24
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,303
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 -0.4% -9.8% 86% 35% -11.4%
≤30d 170 -1.8% -11.1% 85% 35% -11.6%
≤90d 585 -0.5% -9.9% 82% 40% -12.1%
all 585 -0.5% -9.9% 82% 40% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 40% -12.1%
10% -18.6% 23% -20.5%
15% -26.4% 11% -28.2%
20% -33.6% 5% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$70 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$922
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses480 / 105
Open positions0
Markets (closed)585 / 585
History coverage70d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 585 Trades
no open positions (78 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1534 history records