Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5B 0x5bdc…be3b sports 14 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$179 (+12%) realized +$179 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$167
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -16.4% -24.4% 50% 50% +0.4%
≤30d 14 -16.4% -24.4% 50% 50% +0.4%
≤90d 14 -16.4% -24.4% 50% 50% +0.4%
all 14 -16.4% -24.4% 50% 50% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.4% 50% +0.4%
10% ← realistic here -31.6% 50% -9.2%
15% -38.2% 43% -18.0%
20% -44.3% 21% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$88 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$179
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $501 +$549 +110%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $23 −$23 -98%
Cangrejeros de Santurce vs. Indios de Mayaguez Jun 12 $47 +$26 +55%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $85 +$36 +43%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $105 +$128 +122%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $113 −$71 -63%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $58 +$22 +38%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $40 +$11 +29%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $25 −$24 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $33 +$12 +38%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $279 −$274 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $0 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 44¢ $23 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $492 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 22¢ $5 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 5d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 68¢ $17 5d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 69¢ $7 5d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 69¢ $47 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 72¢ $58 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 40¢ $6 5d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 50¢ $26 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 54¢ $192 5d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 26¢ $34 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 58¢ $70 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 43¢ $6 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 43¢ $2 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 42¢ $79 5d
Cangrejeros de Santurce vs. Indios de Mayaguez BUY Cangrejeros de Santurce 64¢ $47 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 48¢ $25 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Forsaken 32¢ $8 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 72¢ $33 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 61¢ $31 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 28¢ $56 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 28¢ $223 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 28¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records