Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:02:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bdf…3a19 sports 86 markets active 5d ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$58 (-5%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%49W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$34
14 days−$52
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$111
other 33% −$184
world 2% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -31.9% -38.4% 25% 25% -73.9%
≤30d 14 -17.1% -25.0% 36% 36% -6.9%
≤90d 54 -2.0% -11.3% 50% 50% -14.9%
all 86 +3.8% -6.1% 57% 57% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 57% -14.3%
10% -15.1% 50% -22.5%
15% -23.3% 45% -30.0%
20% -30.8% 37% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses49 / 37
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage139d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Daria Snigur vs. Robin Montgomery: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$9 +172%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $5 +$10 +188%
HSBC Championships: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 10 $40 −$17 -41%
Ilkley: Veronika Podrez vs Tatiana Prozorova Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $8 −$8 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Kostyuk vs Andreeva Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Anna Kalinskaya vs. Maja Chwalinska: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $3 −$3 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $40 +$32 +79%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $37 +$28 +77%
Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Kostyuk (+1.5) May 31 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $80 −$79 -98%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Simona Waltert vs Hailey Baptiste May 08 $5 +$7 +140%
Set Handicap: Tauson (-1.5) vs Oliynykova (+1.5) May 08 $30 −$8 -25%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert May 07 $5 +$6 +119%
Sierra vs. Kalinina: Match O/U 21.5 May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $39 −$38 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Anhelina Kalinina vs Katie May 05 $15 +$8 +52%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Petra Marcinko vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 05 $13 +$16 +124%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Noemi Basiletti vs Daria S May 05 $10 +$2 +17%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 May 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Anhelina May 04 $10 +$8 +86%
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 04 $44 +$21 +48%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk May 03 $38 +$45 +119%
Madrid Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Mirra Andreeva Apr 30 $29 −$28 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $10 +$7 +70%
Madrid Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova Apr 30 $33 +$18 +52%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Baptiste (+1.5) Apr 29 $3 +$7 +206%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Madrid Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Mirra Andreeva Apr 28 $6 −$6 -98%
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Hailey Baptiste Apr 28 $9 +$8 +86%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $20 +$20 +101%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $20 +$9 +44%
Madrid Open: Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk Apr 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 25 $23 +$12 +52%
Yulia Putintseva vs. Marta Kostyuk: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $53 +$10 +18%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $43 +$10 +24%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Marta Kostyuk vs Veronika Podrez Apr 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Veronika Podrez vs Sorana Cirstea Apr 19 $5 $0 -2%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Apr 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $35 −$34 -98%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $14 +$12 +86%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Gabriela Ruse vs Dayana Yastremska Apr 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 84¢ $9 4d
Daria Snigur vs. Robin Montgomery: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 40¢ $15 6d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska $1 6d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 10¢ $3 6d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 49¢ $5 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 7d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 59¢ $10 7d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur SELL Daria Snigur 100¢ $15 7d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Daria Snigur 34¢ $5 7d
HSBC Championships: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Marta Kostyuk 85¢ $40 9d
Ilkley: Veronika Podrez vs Tatiana Prozorova BUY Veronika Podrez 35¢ $3 10d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska $3 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 19¢ $5 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 20¢ $10 14d
Set 1 Winner: Kostyuk vs Andreeva BUY Kostyuk 53¢ $5 14d
Anna Kalinskaya vs. Maja Chwalinska: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 53¢ $3 15d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $40 16d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic BUY Elina Svitolina 51¢ $10 18d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic BUY Elina Svitolina 49¢ $10 18d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic BUY Elina Svitolina 65¢ $17 18d
Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Kostyuk (+1.5) SELL Kostyuk 100¢ $37 18d
Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Kostyuk (+1.5) BUY Kostyuk 53¢ $20 18d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 41¢ $60 39d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 46¢ $80 40d
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Simona Waltert vs Hailey Baptiste BUY Hailey Baptiste 41¢ $5 41d
Sierra vs. Kalinina: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 42d
Set Handicap: Tauson (-1.5) vs Oliynykova (+1.5) BUY Oliynykova 66¢ $30 42d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $39 43d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 45¢ $5 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records