Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:32:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
5B 0x5be6…00f2 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 709d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$11,836 (+130%) realized +$12,127 · open −$291
Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip
Net edge+48%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$569per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,101
7 days+$13,068
14 days+$13,068
30 days+$13,068
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$13,879
other 40% −$1,664
world 16% −$1,366
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+54.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +217.1% +186.9% 50% 50% +190.2%
≤30d 6 +217.1% +186.9% 50% 50% +190.2%
≤90d 6 +217.1% +186.9% 50% 50% +190.2%
all 15 +70.8% +54.5% 40% 40% +107.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +54.5% 40% +107.3%
10% +39.7% 40% +87.4%
15% +26.2% 40% +69.3%
20% +13.8% 40% +52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +221% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +71% · $-wt +129% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +138% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,738 vs −$587 · ×4.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.11 per $1 lost it wins $3.11
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

709d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$12,127
Unrealized−$291
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage709d
Avg bet$569
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 35¢ 10¢ $400 $109 −$291 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $512 −$500 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $986 +$11,001 +1115%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,057 −$2,000 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,013 +$803 +79%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,020 +$4,164 +408%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 17 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Jan 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 12 $100 +$117 +117%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 08 $975 −$975 -100%
LSU vs. Clemson Aug 31 $175 +$307 +175%
Texas vs. Ohio State Aug 30 $888 −$888 -100%
2024 July hottest on record? Aug 30 $50 +$33 +67%
Toledo vs. Kentucky Aug 30 $222 −$222 -100%
Netherlands vs. England - Who will advance? Jul 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes $103 51m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 57m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $161 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $224 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $204 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $11,988 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1,029 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $986 28h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1,028 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,816 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,013 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $2,060 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $112 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $1 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $2,423 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $112 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $112 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $12 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $112 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $112 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $112 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $19 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $697 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.57 · official $108.57 (match) · 47 history records