Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:38:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5be9…051d crypto 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6,198 (+5%) realized +$6,561 · open −$363
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate79%19W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$5,218per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$4,891
sports 22% +$3,793
politics 22% −$270
crypto 19% +$7,195
tech 8% +$22
weather 2% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 24 +6.1% -4.0% 79% 33% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 33% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 25% -14.4%
15% -21.6% 21% -22.7%
20% -29.3% 12% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$10,978) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$625 vs −$1,125 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$6,561
Unrealized−$363
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses19 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage234d
Avg bet$5,218
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 23¢ $460 $150 −$310 (-67%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner FURIA 21¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FaZe Clan win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Dec 14 $374 −$374 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Nov 24 $1,060 +$324 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Nov 24 $1,769 +$803 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 19 $15,420 +$41 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 15 $15,029 +$396 +3%
Will the government shutdown end November 13? Nov 10 $2,600 −$40 -2%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Nov 10 $1,395 −$10 -1%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $14,732 +$1,753 +12%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $3,435 +$610 +18%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $25,597 +$27 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $260 −$248 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 2? Nov 03 $1,558 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8AM ET Nov 02 $12,477 +$13 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $3,850 +$1,420 +37%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 02 $7,457 +$372 +5%
Solana Up or Down - November 1, 10PM ET Nov 02 $2,541 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on November 1 Nov 02 $2,594 +$30 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 5AM ET Nov 01 $915 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5AM ET Nov 01 $1,202 +$9 +1%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Nov 01 $10,978 +$22 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 31? Oct 31 $3,940 +$5,500 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5AM ET Oct 31 $963 +$502 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 30? Oct 31 $30 +$30 +98%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $4,973 −$4,954 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 23¢ $471 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 21¢ $54 2h
Will FaZe Clan win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 189d
Will FaZe Clan win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 189d
Will FaZe Clan win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? BUY Yes 29¢ $160 189d
Will FaZe Clan win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? BUY Yes 29¢ $122 189d
Will FaZe Clan win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 189d
Will FaZe Clan win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? BUY Yes 31¢ $69 189d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $38 208d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $959 208d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $15 208d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $46 208d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $685 208d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1,085 208d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 100¢ $55 215d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 100¢ $70 215d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 100¢ $2 215d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 215d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 100¢ $5 215d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 100¢ $875 215d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 100¢ $20 215d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 100¢ $152 215d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 100¢ $286 215d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 100¢ $965 215d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 100¢ $20 215d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 100¢ $617 215d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 100¢ $1 215d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 100¢ $261 215d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 100¢ $400 215d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 100¢ $281 215d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.12 · official $150.12 (match) · 347 history records