Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:20:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

5B 0x5bec…2163 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$927 (-25%) realized −$948 · open +$21

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip

Net edge-35%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$534per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit14%portable

Net worth$2,711now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 103d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-34.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	2	-27.8%	-34.7%	50%	50%	-92.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-34.7%	50%	-92.0%
10%	-40.9%	50%	-92.8%
15%	-46.6%	50%	-93.5%
20%	-51.9%	0%	-94.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -28% · $-wt -91% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$27 vs −$919 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.03 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage

Net worth$2,711

Realized−$948

Unrealized+$21

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions5

Markets (closed)2 / 7

History coverage103d

Avg bet$534

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	No	46¢	48¢	$688	$725	+$37 (+5%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	57¢	57¢	$694	$700	+$6 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	No	53¢	52¢	$627	$621	−$6 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	27¢	26¢	$441	$433	−$8 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	No	15¢	14¢	$240	$232	−$8 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?	May 07	$942	−$919	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Mar 17	$60	+$27	+44%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	53¢	$636	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	46¢	$102	1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	27¢	$451	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	57¢	$703	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	15¢	$246	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	46¢	$598	1h
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?	BUY No	17¢	$2	51d
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?	BUY No	17¢	$444	51d
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?	BUY No	17¢	$496	51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$60	102d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,711.10 · official $2,695.10 (match) · 11 history records