Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5bee…31ca crypto 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%120W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 39 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 121 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 121 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×62.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7530.57 per $1 lost it wins $7530.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses120 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)121 / 123
History coverage88d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on July 2? No 100¢ 100¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 1? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 29? Jun 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 22-28? Jun 27 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 26? Jun 26 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 25? Jun 24 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,300 on June 24? Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 24? Jun 23 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 24? Jun 22 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 23? Jun 21 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 22? Jun 20 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 21? Jun 18 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 20? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 20? Jun 18 $87 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 17? Jun 17 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 19? Jun 17 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? Jun 16 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $117 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 16? Jun 14 $117 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $117 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 13? Jun 12 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 11? Jun 10 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 11? Jun 10 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 10? Jun 09 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 8? Jun 06 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 6? Jun 05 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 5? Jun 03 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 4? Jun 02 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 3? Jun 01 $115 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Jun 01 $65 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 on May 30? May 31 $115 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 30 $115 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? May 29 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 29? May 28 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 27 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 27? May 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on May 27? May 25 $66 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 27? May 25 $48 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 26? May 25 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 26? May 25 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25? May 24 $114 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 18-24? May 24 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 24? May 23 $114 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on July 2? BUY No 100¢ $77 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 1? SELL No 100¢ $77 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 1? BUY No 100¢ $119 20h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $1 27h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $20 31h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $6 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $93 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $21 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $21 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $119 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $116 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $4 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $119 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $18 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $102 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $18 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,300 on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $3 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,300 on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $14 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $101 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $101 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $101 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,300 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $18 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $7 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $106 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $6 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $119 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $31 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $88 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $42 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $77 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.42 · official $119.42 (match) · 311 history records