Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:11:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5B 0x5bf0…696f sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$122 (-6%) realized −$122 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$109
7 days−$241
14 days−$362
30 days−$362
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$362
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -7.0% -15.9% 70% 70% -20.3%
≤30d 11 -15.5% -23.5% 64% 64% -24.8%
≤90d 11 -15.5% -23.5% 64% 64% -24.8%
all 11 -15.5% -23.5% 64% 64% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 64% -24.8%
10% -30.9% 36% -32.0%
15% -37.5% 18% -38.5%
20% -43.7% 18% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$194 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage9d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 3 Winner: Svrcina vs Tien Jun 29 $397 −$394 -100%
Set 2 Winner: Svrcina vs Tien Jun 29 $305 +$90 +30%
Set 1 Winner: Svrcina vs Tien Jun 29 $241 +$66 +27%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 29 $199 +$42 +21%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 29 $167 +$32 +19%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $110 +$56 +51%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $263 −$259 -98%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $216 +$47 +22%
Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Martin Landaluce: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $135 +$80 +60%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $122 −$120 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set 3 Winner: Svrcina vs Tien BUY Tien 82¢ $397 1h
Set 2 Winner: Svrcina vs Tien SELL Tien 100¢ $395 1h
Set 2 Winner: Svrcina vs Tien BUY Tien 77¢ $83 2h
Set 2 Winner: Svrcina vs Tien BUY Tien 77¢ $40 2h
Set 2 Winner: Svrcina vs Tien BUY Tien 77¢ $4 2h
Set 2 Winner: Svrcina vs Tien BUY Tien 77¢ $19 2h
Set 2 Winner: Svrcina vs Tien BUY Tien 77¢ $19 2h
Set 2 Winner: Svrcina vs Tien BUY Tien 77¢ $19 2h
Set 2 Winner: Svrcina vs Tien BUY Tien 77¢ $19 2h
Set 2 Winner: Svrcina vs Tien BUY Tien 77¢ $19 2h
Set 2 Winner: Svrcina vs Tien BUY Tien 77¢ $19 2h
Set 2 Winner: Svrcina vs Tien BUY Tien 77¢ $4 2h
Set 2 Winner: Svrcina vs Tien BUY Tien 77¢ $58 2h
Set 1 Winner: Svrcina vs Tien SELL Tien 100¢ $307 2h
Set 1 Winner: Svrcina vs Tien BUY Tien 78¢ $241 3h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $241 4h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 82¢ $199 7h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 100¢ $198 7h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 84¢ $167 15h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL Canada 100¢ $166 15h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 66¢ $110 16h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $1 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $263 6d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL Grind Back 100¢ $263 6d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 82¢ $83 6d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 82¢ $30 6d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 82¢ $41 6d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 82¢ $22 6d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 82¢ $16 6d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 82¢ $24 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.24 (match) · 43 history records