Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:32:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5bfb…3c94 world 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,053 (-20%) realized −$1,053 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$514per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$1,145
14 days−$1,145
30 days−$1,124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$80
other 42% −$1,189
sports 3% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -8.1% -16.8% 50% 33% -54.7%
≤30d 7 -6.7% -15.6% 57% 29% -38.2%
≤90d 10 -3.5% -12.7% 70% 20% -28.2%
all 10 -3.5% -12.7% 70% 20% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 20% -28.2%
10% -21.0% 20% -35.1%
15% -28.7% 10% -41.4%
20% -35.6% 10% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$396 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,053
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage94d
Avg bet$514
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $39 +$4 +10%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$32 +32%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$37 -73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$42 -41%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,993 −$1,110 -56%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 06 $1,254 +$21 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 29 $1,212 +$43 +4%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 04 $192 +$8 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 04 $192 +$8 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 91¢ $39 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 55¢ $10 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $133 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $60 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $882 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,993 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1,275 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $1,254 44d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,255 52d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $1,212 77d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY No 96¢ $192 92d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 96¢ $192 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records