Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:53:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bfb…e965 weather 408 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate91%367W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$9
14 days+$6
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% −$6
crypto 2% +$8
other 1% +$3
politics 1% −$1
world 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +2.4% -7.4% 95% 16% -7.2%
≤30d 128 +2.0% -7.7% 95% 17% -7.1%
≤90d 405 -0.6% -10.1% 91% 10% -9.4%
all 405 -0.6% -10.1% 91% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 10% -9.4%
10% -18.7% 4% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses367 / 38
Open positions3
Markets (closed)405 / 408
History coverage84d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 405 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 19? No 92¢ 99¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 19? No 92¢ 91¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 19? No 97¢ 96¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $28 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $32 −$22 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $33 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $32 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $38 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $37 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $38 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $39 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $17 −$13 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $42 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $28 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 15 $16 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $12 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $16 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $38 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 09 $38 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 09 $37 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $26 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $27 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $27 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $28 22h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 70¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $29 23h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 70¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $9 25h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 70¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $18 27h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $16 27h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $16 30h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $31 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $32 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $33 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $35 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $23 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $38 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 31¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $17 3d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $37 3d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.79 · official $81.79 (match) · 1031 history records