Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:41:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5C
0x5c00…37ec
world · 41 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$287 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$245 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$561
Realized+$245
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses10 / 26
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions5
Markets (closed)36 / 41
History coverage134d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 5 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$537
7 days+$137
14 days+$314
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $56 $59 +$3 (+6%)
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $220 $0 −$220 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Thunder 12¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? No 22¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 46¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 2¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $151 $0 −$151 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Seahawks vs. Patriots Patriots 32¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will DeepSeek run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $357 +$537 +150%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $407 −$400 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $204 +$177 +87%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $113 −$110 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $113 −$110 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $205 +$785 +383%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $200 +$218 +109%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $50 +$228 +456%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Feb 23 $10 +$2 +24%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 23 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 23 $40 −$40 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 23 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 20 $70 −$70 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 20 $188 −$188 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $220 −$220 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 20 $110 −$110 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 18 $151 −$151 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Feb 18 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Feb 17 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Feb 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Feb 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Feb 16 $10 +$26 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 16 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 16 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 16 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Feb 09 $100 −$100 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? Feb 09 $100 +$103 +103%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 09 $213 −$213 -100%
Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 08 $60 −$60 -100%
Will DeepSeek run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 06 $100 +$578 +578%
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? Feb 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28? Feb 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 42% +$897
world 27% −$861
crypto 19% +$154
other 9% −$12
finance 2% +$103
tech 0% −$20
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $0 17h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 91¢ $530 17h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 63¢ $364 17h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $57 18h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 18h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 22¢ $102 19h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $255 19h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 16¢ $103 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 48¢ $102 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 46¢ $102 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $101 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $154 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $154 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 74¢ $198 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 68¢ $182 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $204 10d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 2¢ $113 14d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 2¢ $10 16d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 24¢ $102 16d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 46¢ $102 19d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 99¢ $990 35d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 20¢ $205 35d
Pistons vs. Magic SELL Magic 100¢ $418 68d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Magic 47¢ $200 68d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $50 107d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $50 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $12 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 111d
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $50 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +25.2% +13.3% 50% 50% +6.9%
≤30d 6 -27.1% -34.1% 33% 33% -9.9%
≤90d 8 +41.2% +27.7% 50% 50% +44.0%
all 36 -11.9% -20.3% 28% 28% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 28% -3.5%
10% -28.0% 25% -12.7%
15% -34.9% 22% -21.1%
20% -41.3% 22% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $561.30 · official $561.30 (match) · 84 history records