Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:46:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c05…416c sports 270 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,387 (-13%) realized −$1,070 · open −$1,317
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%106W / 162L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$340est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$941
7 days+$937
14 days−$157
30 days−$1,189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$3,956
weather 3% +$8
crypto 1% −$7
other 1% −$142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -13.1% -21.4% 50% 44% +7.0%
≤30d 59 -40.7% -46.4% 25% 24% -19.3%
≤90d 268 -18.2% -26.0% 40% 38% -23.9%
all 268 -18.2% -26.0% 40% 38% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 38% -23.9%
10% -33.1% 34% -31.2%
15% -39.5% 28% -37.8%
20% -45.5% 22% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$49 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$1,070
Unrealized−$1,317
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses106 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$340
Open positions2
Markets (closed)268 / 270
History coverage47d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 268 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Mentality Monster 29¢ 2¢ $334 $17 −$316 (-95%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs PlayTime 79¢ 0¢ $1,001 $1 −$1,001 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $2 $0 -21%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $602 −$596 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $1,186 +$422 +36%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL N Jun 18 $124 +$12 +10%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winne Jun 18 $476 +$175 +37%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $1,109 +$374 +34%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $574 +$453 +79%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $94 −$75 -79%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $295 +$234 +79%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 18 $46 −$43 -93%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $93 +$59 +64%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $57 −$9 -15%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $222 +$129 +58%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $34 +$26 +77%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Jun 17 $165 −$161 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $204 −$117 -58%
Set 2 Winner: Shelton vs Giron Jun 11 $79 −$18 -23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $448 −$325 -73%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $41 −$40 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $106 +$357 +335%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $489 −$63 -13%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $332 −$332 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on June 11? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $86 −$85 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $44 −$44 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $26 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $287 −$261 -91%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $235 −$230 -98%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $70 −$43 -61%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $42 −$42 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $125 −$125 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $71 −$71 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $299 +$505 +169%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $111 −$110 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $943 −$931 -99%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 05 $457 +$487 +107%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 04 $217 +$239 +110%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling Jun 04 $130 +$85 +66%
Makarska: Akasha Urhobo vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 04 $70 −$7 -10%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $111 −$110 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 27 $112 −$110 -98%
Valorant: Pigeons vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: May 27 $97 −$96 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $56 −$55 -98%
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs Dplus KIA (+2.5) May 26 $29 −$28 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 27¢ $2 29m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 20¢ $2 30m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 24¢ $2 30m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 29¢ $339 31m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 79¢ $1,008 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 65¢ $493 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 64¢ $1 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 64¢ $27 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 64¢ $4 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 64¢ $78 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,608 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 75¢ $990 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 65¢ $130 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 65¢ $66 3h
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL N SELL Shopify Rebellion Black 100¢ $137 4h
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winne SELL Shopify Rebellion Black 100¢ $651 4h
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winne BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 67¢ $45 5h
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winne BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 72¢ $93 5h
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winne BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 72¢ $98 5h
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winne BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 72¢ $98 5h
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winne BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 77¢ $128 5h
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winne BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 76¢ $15 5h
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL N BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 91¢ $101 5h
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL N BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 91¢ $23 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $1,339 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 77¢ $775 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 71¢ $37 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 71¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 71¢ $76 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 71¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.93 · official $17.93 (match) · 848 history records