Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c06…400e crypto 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-5%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%50W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$14
14 days−$18
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$22
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -12.7% -21.0% 49% 43% -15.9%
≤30d 109 -16.5% -24.4% 46% 41% -18.0%
≤90d 109 -16.5% -24.4% 46% 41% -18.0%
all 109 -16.5% -24.4% 46% 41% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 41% -18.0%
10% -31.6% 39% -25.9%
15% -38.3% 32% -33.1%
20% -44.3% 28% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses50 / 59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage21d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$5 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$2 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.93 · official $4.93 (match) · 243 history records