Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:16:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c07…34f0 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-3%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%16W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -6.3% -15.2% 62% 62% -12.6%
≤30d 26 -6.3% -15.2% 62% 62% -12.6%
≤90d 26 -6.3% -15.2% 62% 62% -12.6%
all 26 -6.3% -15.2% 62% 62% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 62% -12.6%
10% -23.4% 62% -21.0%
15% -30.8% 62% -28.6%
20% -37.5% 23% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses16 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records