Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:04:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5C 0x5c09…3cdc sports 33 markets active 1d ago coverage 711d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$40 (+31%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +51% what you keep after slip
Net edge+51%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$8
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% +$48
other 32% −$2
sports 22% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+51.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +144.2% +120.9% 50% 50% +60.7%
≤30d 8 +119.8% +98.9% 50% 50% +13.0%
≤90d 8 +119.8% +98.9% 50% 50% +13.0%
all 16 +67.1% +51.2% 38% 38% +38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +51.2% 38% +38.3%
10% +36.8% 38% +25.1%
15% +23.5% 38% +13.0%
20% +11.4% 38% +1.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +67% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +120% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$4 · ×3.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

711d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 33
History coverage711d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway Jun 23 $1 +$2 +236%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -53%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 18 $1 +$2 +224%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Austria Jun 17 $1 +$5 +494%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -20%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +194%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 29 $5 +$16 +327%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 27 $13 −$7 -54%
No airdrop in 2025? Dec 27 $5 −$1 -15%
Lighter Airdrop on December 28? Dec 27 $6 −$4 -65%
Lighter Airdrop on December 31? Dec 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 13 $30 +$68 +227%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 21 $20 −$12 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Fra BUY $1 30h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway BUY 29¢ $1 30h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 AND Will Egypt BUY 12¢ $0 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND B BUY $0 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Neth BUY $1 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY 10¢ $1 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will Türkiye w BUY 12¢ $1 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Br BUY 27¢ $1 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Wil BUY 11¢ $1 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND BUY 32¢ $1 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY $1 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 30¢ $1 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Portu BUY $1 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 14¢ $1 6d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Austria BUY 16¢ $1 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 8d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND BUY 15¢ $2 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Saudi Ara BUY $2 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 9d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND W BUY 10¢ $1 9d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY 33¢ $1 9d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Germany BUY $1 9d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Haiti v BUY 18¢ $2 10d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 27¢ $6 11d
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $21 176d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY No $5 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records