Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:15:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5C
0x5c0a…a2c3
other · 458 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5,401 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,778 · open −$258
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,060
Realized−$3,778
Unrealized−$258
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses24 / 303
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$185
Open positions18
Markets (closed)327 / 458
History coverage6d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day533.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 18 History 327 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,987
7 days−$3,778
14 days−$3,778
30 days−$3,778
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $178 $177 −$1 (-1%)
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $130 $130 −$1 (-1%)
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 90¢ 74¢ $142 $117 −$25 (-17%)
Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state? Yes 89¢ 72¢ $125 $101 −$24 (-19%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 44¢ 44¢ $86 $85 −$1 (-1%)
Will MagicBlock launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $80 $80 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 36¢ $72 $71 −$1 (-1%)
Will Team Liquid win LCS 2026 Spring? No 85¢ 69¢ $85 $69 −$16 (-19%)
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? Yes 85¢ 60¢ $81 $57 −$24 (-29%)
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? No 92¢ 87¢ $47 $45 −$3 (-5%)
MLB: Aaron Judge or Juan Soto to draw more walks? Judge 73¢ 16¢ $201 $43 −$158 (-79%)
Will Ethan Corson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election? No 41¢ 38¢ $32 $30 −$2 (-6%)
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? No 47¢ 46¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Özgür Özel arrested by June 30? No 98¢ 97¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? Yes 70¢ 55¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-22%)
Will DR Congo be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 92¢ 92¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 12 $1,566 −$13 -1%
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $94 −$22 -24%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $1,352 −$16 -1%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $1,940 −$23 -1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzego Jun 12 $6 −$2 -30%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Parag Jun 12 $5 −$2 -28%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Canada (-1.5) A Jun 12 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $3,936 −$30 -1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $893 −$15 -2%
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap? Jun 12 $28 −$6 -20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND Jun 12 $0 $0 -80%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $422 −$2 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 12 $783 −$37 -5%
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 12 $68 −$1 -1%
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title? Jun 12 $396 −$6 -1%
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, Jun 12 $2,224 −$16 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $833 −$7 -1%
Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 12 $118 −$4 -4%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $2,643 −$16 -1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -33%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? Jun 12 $2,156 −$9 -0%
Will Kevin Cash win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? Jun 12 $97 −$7 -7%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Jun 12 $332 −$7 -2%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $105 −$1 -1%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 12 $695 −$14 -2%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 12 $169 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $16 −$6 -40%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 12 $425 −$22 -5%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $211 −$10 -5%
Will Curaçao be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 F Jun 12 $66 −$8 -12%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $636 −$29 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $1,289 −$23 -2%
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? Jun 12 $193 −$6 -3%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 202 Jun 12 $17 $0 +2%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Jun 12 $949 −$7 -1%
AWS service disrupted by June 30? Jun 12 $142 −$13 -9%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 12 $342 −$3 -1%
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $76 −$8 -11%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? Jun 12 $471 −$6 -1%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June? Jun 12 $71 −$2 -3%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 in June? Jun 12 $123 −$14 -11%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $455 −$35 -8%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 12 $68 −$1 -2%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 12 $655 −$13 -2%
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Jun 12 $54 −$2 -5%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? Jun 12 $175 −$5 -3%
Will Ghana be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $21 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 37% −$2,484
world 24% −$557
sports 14% −$279
politics 12% −$279
tech 4% −$273
finance 4% −$151
economics 3% +$28
culture 1% −$32
weather 0% −$7
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Ger BUY 28¢ $2 2m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY 32¢ $3 3m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY 68¢ $0 4m
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? SELL No 98¢ $0 6m
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 6m
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY No 98¢ $142 6m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Australia vs. Türkiye BUY 6¢ $0 6m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Australia vs. Türkiye BUY 94¢ $0 6m
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $7 11m
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 28¢ $2 12m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 20¢ $2 14m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 11¢ $1 22m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 89¢ $0 22m
Will DR Congo be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 55¢ $34 22m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $15 24m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 24m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 24m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $0 38m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $80 39m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $33 39m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $109 39m
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY No 64¢ $8 41m
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 41m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 23¢ $1 42m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 77¢ $0 43m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $178 50m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026 BUY 39¢ $4 59m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026 BUY 39¢ $4 59m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026 BUY 61¢ $5 59m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026 BUY 61¢ $5 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 327 +1.8% -7.9% 7% 4% -12.6%
≤30d 327 +1.8% -7.9% 7% 4% -12.6%
≤90d 327 +1.8% -7.9% 7% 4% -12.6%
all 327 +1.8% -7.9% 7% 4% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover533.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 4% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 2% -21.0%
15% -24.8% 2% -28.6%
20% -32.2% 2% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,060.10 · official $1,271.20 · 3500 history records