Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T15:15:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c0c…b626 sports 644 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,491 (-7%) realized −$9,487 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate46%290W / 347L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Fees−$1,192est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$347now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$182
7 days−$228
14 days+$294
30 days−$1,534
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$13,044
other 3% +$459
crypto 1% −$208
world 0% −$342
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +1.7% -8.0% 45% 45% -12.4%
≤30d 242 -2.2% -11.5% 48% 42% -12.7%
≤90d 592 -15.5% -23.5% 46% 38% -19.8%
all 637 -16.8% -24.7% 46% 37% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 37% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 24% -27.0%
15% -38.5% 19% -34.1%
20% -44.5% 15% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -25% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$89 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$347
Realized−$9,487
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses290 / 347
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$1,192
Open positions10
Markets (closed)637 / 644
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$199
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 637 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $110 $111 +$1 (+1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $55 $55 −$1 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $53 $54 +$0 (+1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 56¢ 54¢ $56 $54 −$2 (-4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $31 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 250 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Warriors vs. Knicks Jun 22 $63 −$63 -100%
Jazz vs. Kings Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $84 +$74 +88%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $144 +$164 +115%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $9 +$91 +1011%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $134 −$134 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $122 −$120 -99%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $61 −$60 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $59 −$59 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $75 +$43 +57%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $146 +$54 +37%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $32 −$28 -87%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $138 −$38 -28%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $124 +$84 +67%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $106 +$102 +97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $192 −$72 -38%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $150 +$100 +67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $58 −$57 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $116 +$14 +12%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 18 $104 +$16 +16%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $89 +$11 +13%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $29 +$21 +73%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $75 +$25 +33%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $122 +$86 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 +$30 +43%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $403 +$205 +51%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 +$48 +31%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$105 +52%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $155 −$153 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 +$74 +291%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $343 −$342 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $161 −$160 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $571 +$537 +94%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $106 −$104 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $199 −$195 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $160 −$160 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $53 7m
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $13 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $56 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $32 1h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $112 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 12h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $27 12h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $54 12h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $4 14h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $44 14h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 14h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $18 14h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $0 14h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $0 14h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 14h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $7 14h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $0 14h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $96 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 15h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 26¢ $26 16h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 16h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $0 16h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $90 16h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $44 16h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $122 20h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 60¢ $61 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $347.31 · official $347.32 (match) · 3500 history records