Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:03:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5c0d…3dfa other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$686 (-9%) realized −$709 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%5W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$400per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$416
other 17% −$108
crypto 13% −$452
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -73.6% -76.2% 0% 0% -65.4%
all 17 -19.0% -26.7% 29% 24% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 24% -23.9%
10% -33.7% 24% -31.2%
15% -40.1% 24% -37.8%
20% -46.0% 24% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$92 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$252
Realized−$709
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses5 / 12
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage243d
Avg bet$400
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $107 $130 +$23 (+22%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $122 $122 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 04 $228 −$219 -96%
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $579 −$274 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 23 $254 −$254 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 11 $290 +$9 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 11 $453 −$6 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 11 $290 −$14 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 10 $128 +$70 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 10 $140 −$12 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 10 $39 −$38 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 10 $20 +$18 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 10 $50 −$38 -76%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $152 −$105 -69%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 04 $12 +$8 +61%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $3 +$3 +104%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Oct 30 $2,280 −$34 -2%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $1,161 −$50 -4%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Los Heretics (BO5) Oct 30 $1,279 −$61 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $125 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $109 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $228 55d
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season SELL Shifters 53¢ $228 55d
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Shifters 78¢ $251 55d
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Shifters 65¢ $77 55d
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season SELL Movistar KOI 25¢ $77 55d
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Movistar KOI 78¢ $251 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $254 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $299 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $290 109d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $70 109d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $220 109d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $100 110d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $137 110d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $237 110d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $198 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $128 110d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $128 110d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $140 110d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $140 110d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $55 110d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $55 110d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $73 110d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 110d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $80 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $39 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $38 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $20 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $12 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.51 · official $251.51 (match) · 55 history records