Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c0f…dfa6 crypto 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$150 (-9%) realized −$150 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate47%29W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$27
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$119
crypto 33% −$37
world 10% −$2
sports 7% $0
politics 3% $0
economics 3% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -3.1% -12.3% 20% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 16 -2.1% -11.4% 31% 6% -12.5%
≤90d 62 -10.1% -18.7% 47% 27% -18.3%
all 62 -10.1% -18.7% 47% 27% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 27% -18.3%
10% -26.5% 21% -26.1%
15% -33.6% 18% -33.3%
20% -40.1% 16% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$150
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses29 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage76d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-0%)
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? SpaceX 98¢ 97¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $59 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $63 +$2 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $69 −$1 -1%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? Jun 16 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Jun 15 $45 −$2 -4%
NATO dissolves before 2027? Jun 15 $72 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $44 −$11 -25%
EU dissolves before 2027? Jun 15 $85 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $32 −$16 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $18 +$14 +80%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $28 −$12 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $28 +$1 +5%
China coup attempt before 2027? Jun 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 17 $23 −$23 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 15 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 15 $15 +$12 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 15 $7 −$6 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 15 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 15 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 15 $20 +$21 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 15 $14 −$12 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 14 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 14 $19 +$21 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 14 $6 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 14 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 14 $15 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 14 $5 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 14 $13 −$8 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 14 $6 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 14 $41 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 14 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 14 $35 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 14 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 14 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $44 +$27 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 10 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 10 $15 +$9 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 97¢ $72 1h
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? BUY SpaceX 98¢ $44 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $55 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $55 12h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $59 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 96¢ $48 13h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 13h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 97¢ $49 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 26h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $68 36h
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? SELL No 96¢ $43 36h
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? BUY No 98¢ $6 36h
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? BUY No 98¢ $5 39h
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? BUY No 98¢ $3 39h
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? BUY No 98¢ $29 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 2d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 87¢ $43 2d
NATO dissolves before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $72 2d
NATO dissolves before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $72 2d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $33 2d
EU dissolves before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $85 2d
EU dissolves before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $85 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $44 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $17 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $32 10d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.37 · official $115.37 (match) · 174 history records