Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:20:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5c10…3e45 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$67 (+6%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 100d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +7.9% -2.4% 59% 47% +10.9%
≤30d 17 +7.9% -2.4% 59% 47% +10.9%
≤90d 17 +7.9% -2.4% 59% 47% +10.9%
all 24 +10.2% -0.3% 62% 46% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 46% +6.9%
10% -9.8% 46% -3.4%
15% -18.5% 42% -12.7%
20% -26.5% 25% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$24 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage100d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$86 +326%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$66 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $103 +$45 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $102 +$41 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $108 +$43 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 14 $16 +$10 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 14 $6 +$10 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 13 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 13 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $148 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $148 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records