Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:42:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

5C 0x5c11…bd90 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$3,980 (+17%) realized +$4,020 · open −$40

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate67%10W / 5L

Drawdown70%max

Avg bet$1,237per market

Trades / day3.1pace

Fees−$69est.

Kalshi-fit42%portable

Net worth$4,020now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$1,971

7 days+$3,838

14 days+$3,838

30 days+$3,838

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-7.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+2.5%	-7.3%	67%	60%	+8.4%
≤30d	15	+2.5%	-7.3%	67%	60%	+8.4%
≤90d	15	+2.5%	-7.3%	67%	60%	+8.4%
all	15	+2.5%	-7.3%	67%	60%	+8.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-7.3%	60%	+8.4%
10%	-16.2%	60%	-1.9%
15%	-24.3%	47%	-11.4%
20%	-31.7%	33%	-20.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 45% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -43% → late +42% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$724 vs −$681 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$4,020

Realized+$4,020

Unrealized−$40

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses10 / 5

Est. fees paid−$69

Open positions4

Markets (closed)15 / 19

History coverage9d

Avg bet$1,237

Trades / day3.1

Drawdown70%

Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	55¢	55¢	$1,100	$1,090	−$10 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Haiti	50¢	50¢	$1,000	$990	−$10 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	49¢	48¢	$980	$970	−$10 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	Qatar	49¢	48¢	$980	$970	−$10 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$2,149	+$851	+40%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$672	+$578	+86%
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	Jun 17	$949	+$1,081	+114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$752	+$428	+57%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 17	$567	+$383	+67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$760	+$380	+50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$4,024	+$976	+24%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$1,746	−$1,721	-99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$460	−$456	-99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$378	−$374	-99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	Jun 15	$158	−$155	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$756	+$244	+32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$3,822	+$2,178	+57%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 13	$701	−$696	-99%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10?	Jun 10	$1,489	+$141	+10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	55¢	$1,115	1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	BUY Qatar	49¢	$995	1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	BUY Haiti	50¢	$1,015	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	49¢	$995	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Austria	46¢	$23	7h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Austria	46¢	$926	7h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	53¢	$672	7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$2,149	9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$752	9h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	59¢	$567	15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$760	15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	52¢	$949	33h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	52¢	$797	33h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$460	40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$168	40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$210	40h
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	BUY Spain	37¢	$158	43h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	80¢	$4,024	3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY No	76¢	$1	4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$255	4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$382	4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$2,548	4d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10?	BUY No	91¢	$91	6d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10?	BUY No	91¢	$1,192	6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$637	7d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10?	BUY No	91¢	$206	7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY No	76¢	$700	8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	75¢	$756	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,019.99 · official $4,019.99 (match) · 38 history records