Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:56:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c16…0eb0 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$34 · open +$34
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%8W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$1,154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$21
14 days−$44
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$42
crypto 4% +$6
sports 3% +$26
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -4.2% -13.3% 38% 38% -18.9%
≤30d 23 -12.5% -20.9% 35% 35% -27.4%
≤90d 23 -12.5% -20.9% 35% 35% -27.4%
all 23 -12.5% -20.9% 35% 35% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 35% -27.4%
10% -28.4% 35% -34.3%
15% -35.3% 35% -40.7%
20% -41.7% 30% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,154
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses8 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)23 / 34
History coverage8d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $193 $236 +$43 (+22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $189 $226 +$37 (+19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $221 $184 −$37 (-17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $199 $157 −$42 (-21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $103 $153 +$50 (+49%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $101 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $56 +$6 (+13%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $34 +$14 (+72%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $6 −$2 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $6 +$4 +70%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $80 −$14 -17%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $6 +$4 +72%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 −$1 -8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $6 +$2 +40%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 +$4 +61%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$4 +133%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 $0 -1%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +135%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$13 +359%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $12 −$11 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $65 49m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $74 51m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $66 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $6 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 58¢ $6 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $11 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 19h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $8 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 24h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $0 44h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $11 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $7 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $30 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $11 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 56¢ $11 5d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 5d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,153.70 · official $1,153.92 (match) · 63 history records