Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:40:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c17…77e0 politics 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 129L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$12
politics 37% −$13
sports 6% +$40
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 110 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 146 +1.4% -8.3% 12% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 5% -9.5%
10% -17.0% 5% -18.1%
15% -25.0% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.4% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×8.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage130d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $179 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $23 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $135 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $338 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $309 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $150 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $160 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $184 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $314 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $185 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $145 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $181 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 21 $185 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $347 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 17 $146 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $151 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $138 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 13 $175 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $198 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 12 $191 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $154 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $170 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $394 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $311 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $189 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $166 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $154 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $135 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $146 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $189 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 03 $136 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $171 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $150 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $140 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $161 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $156 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $153 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $188 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 26 $178 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $192 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $182 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $203 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $321 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $178 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $19 37h
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $19 2d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 2d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 9d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 20d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 20d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 20d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 22d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $135 22d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $135 24d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $172 24d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $172 26d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $177 26d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $177 26d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $150 26d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $150 26d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $160 27d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $160 27d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $184 28d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $184 28d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $136 28d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $136 29d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $185 29d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $185 29d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $145 29d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $145 30d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $181 30d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $181 30d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $185 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.99 · official $27.99 (match) · 449 history records