Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:39:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5C
0x5c1b…d915
weather · 288 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$1,089 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,089 · open +$56
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$419
Realized+$1,089
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses201 / 200
Open positions10
Markets (closed)401 / 288
History coverage42d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day73.0
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 10 History 401 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$629
7 days−$361
14 days−$16
30 days+$888
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? No 91¢ 100¢ $172 $189 +$17 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Yes 45¢ 100¢ $64 $142 +$78 (+123%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay No 76¢ 84¢ $23 $25 +$3 (+11%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will Fermín López score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 42¢ 1¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 26? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 4? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 2? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 18? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 27? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on April 25? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 9? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C or higher on April 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 22? No 73¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 18? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 21? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 15? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on April 23? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on April 15? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 2? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 18? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 27? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on April 25? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C or higher on April 24? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 22? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 18? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 21? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on April 23? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on April 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on May 3? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 64°F or higher on April 21? Jun 14 $0 −$2 -2487%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 30? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 27 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 28? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on April 30? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 30? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on April 25? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 29? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 21? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 21? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on April 30? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 3? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 24? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on April 24? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on April 28? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 24? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on April 26? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -110%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 30? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on April 15? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 17? Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on April 29? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 20? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 24? Jun 14 $8 −$6 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 25? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 3? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 23? Jun 14 $1 +$12 +921%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 5°C on April 26? Jun 14 $0 +$3 +1529%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 29? Jun 14 $0 −$1 -258%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 27? Jun 14 $12 −$15 -120%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 22? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 53°F or below on April 11? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 23? Jun 14 $7 −$13 -181%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 19? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 24? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 2? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on April 30? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 25? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% +$1,919
other 1% −$17
world 0% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 41m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 78¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 74¢ $7 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+90.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 +47.7% +33.7% 33% 20% -18.0%
≤30d 318 +114.9% +94.4% 47% 29% -4.9%
≤90d 401 +110.3% +90.3% 50% 29% -4.2%
all 401 +110.3% +90.3% 50% 29% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover73.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +90.3% 29% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here +72.1% 24% -13.4%
15% +55.5% 21% -21.7%
20% +40.2% 20% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $419.21 · official $419.21 (match) · 3500 history records