Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:07:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5c1c…abd1 other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 615d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$61 (+0%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate22%16W / 56L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 64% −$14
politics 17% −$13
other 14% −$8
sports 2% +$89
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% +$5
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -6.0% -14.9% 12% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 59 +3.4% -6.5% 20% 15% -8.2%
all 72 +2.8% -7.0% 22% 12% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 12% -9.3%
10% -15.9% 12% -18.0%
15% -24.0% 12% -25.9%
20% -31.5% 11% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×5.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

615d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses16 / 56
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage615d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $77 $77 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $180 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $320 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 24 $184 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 23 $22 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $22 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $300 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $147 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $152 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $157 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $147 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $161 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $147 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $162 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $163 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 26 $156 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 25 $156 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $153 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $152 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $157 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $159 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $146 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $165 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $147 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $159 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $155 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 16 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $156 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $150 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $149 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$12 +165%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $15 +$7 +46%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $13 +$12 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 7h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 30h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 31h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $29 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $77 2d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $29 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 8d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 9d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $6 9d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $23 13d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $23 13d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 15d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $24 15d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 16d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 16d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 18d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $20 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $20 18d
Will Solana reach $130 in May? BUY No 100¢ $37 22d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $34 25d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $34 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.39 · official $91.39 (match) · 343 history records