Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5C 0x5c1e…1719 crypto 863 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$533 (+3%) realized +$565 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate72%611W / 240L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$157
7 days−$36
14 days−$390
30 days−$487
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$102
sports 25% −$533
other 4% +$65
world 1% −$84
weather 0% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 218 +1.7% -7.9% 81% 80% -10.6%
≤30d 847 -0.8% -10.3% 72% 67% -12.2%
≤90d 851 -0.8% -10.3% 72% 67% -12.1%
all 851 -0.8% -10.3% 72% 67% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 67% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 45% -20.5%
15% -26.7% 19% -28.2%
20% -33.9% 11% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$16 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$565
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses611 / 240
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions16
Markets (closed)851 / 863
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 851 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? No 87¢ 86¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 50¢ 54¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Under 52¢ 53¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? No 80¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 84¢ 84¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 73¢ 42¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Senegal 81¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? No 87¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? No 82¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? No 84¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? No 87¢ 93¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? No 75¢ 92¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+23%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? No 53¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+58%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 1¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$3 +19%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$4 +23%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +24%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +19%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 +$3 +31%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19 +$2 +12%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +36%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$3 +18%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$8 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +36%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 +$3 +29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +22%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 28m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 81¢ $2 31m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $2 34m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $19 3h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $10 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 80¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 5h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 87¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 7h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $14 13h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $14 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 16h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 75¢ $10 16h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $10 16h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $10 16h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 75¢ $10 18h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 76¢ $9 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $15 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $15 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $14 20h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $9 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.59 · official $82.73 · 3500 history records