Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:06:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c20…41b3 sports 1008 markets active 1h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$10 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%289W / 707L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$159est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$293
7 days+$508
14 days+$482
30 days+$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$1,095
crypto 8% −$138
other 8% −$387
world 1% +$482
economics 0% −$20
tech 0% +$2
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +28.6% +16.4% 36% 36% +37.5%
≤30d 262 -17.9% -25.7% 25% 24% -3.9%
≤90d 595 -27.5% -34.4% 22% 19% -25.4%
all 996 -17.2% -25.1% 29% 26% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 26% -13.5%
10% -32.2% 24% -21.8%
15% -38.8% 22% -29.3%
20% -44.8% 20% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$15 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses289 / 707
Est. fees paid−$159
Open positions6
Markets (closed)996 / 1008
History coverage188d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 996 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $22 $22 −$1 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $27 $20 −$7 (-26%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 18¢ 16¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-10%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Under 3¢ 2¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-18%)
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 1¢ 0¢ $13 $8 −$6 (-44%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 431 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $11 +$10 +93%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $6 +$14 +257%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $11 +$10 +90%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $6 +$4 +72%
Spread: Japan (-4.5) Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $6 +$14 +226%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $71 +$329 +464%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 −$9 -51%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $16 −$15 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 +$8 +70%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $3 +$5 +162%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 +$30 +176%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 20 $7 +$2 +33%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $6 −$1 -21%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $3 −$2 -62%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $4 +$1 +16%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $9 +$11 +127%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 +$9 +91%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 −$3 -61%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $6 −$5 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $22 −$22 -97%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $12 +$8 +67%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $11 +$14 +131%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $37 −$24 -65%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $12 +$6 +50%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $27 +$2 +8%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$6 -75%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 −$4 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$4 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $44 −$44 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $58 −$2 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$8 -78%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$5 -66%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $17 −$13 -73%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $29 −$28 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 1¢ $14 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $27 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 18¢ $8 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 2h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 19¢ $4 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 3¢ $11 2h
Spread: Japan (-4.5) BUY Japan 0¢ $0 10h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 28¢ $6 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.98 · official $71.32 (match) · 3255 history records