Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:38:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5C 0x5c21…eb20 crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 516d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%38W / 10L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$1
other 23% $0
politics 11% −$1
tech 11% +$1
economics 3% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 48 +0.1% -9.4% 79% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

516d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses38 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage516d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? May 05 $25 $0 +1%
Will Chainlink reach $18 in March? Apr 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $500 in December? Jan 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Nov 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Sep 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 04 $37 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Jul 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 03 $1 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 03 $11 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 03 $17 $0 +1%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? Apr 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 17 $30 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Green Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian el Apr 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Apr 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Mar 26 $20 $0 -1%
Will Kyle Connor win the Hart Trophy? Mar 22 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series? Mar 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Feb 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Jan 28 $14 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $47 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $39 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $17 61d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? BUY No 99¢ $25 62d
Will Chainlink reach $18 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 92d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $28 92d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $3 122d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 122d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $32 123d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 149d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $35 150d
Will BNB dip to $500 in December? BUY No 100¢ $11 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $33 183d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $30 211d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? BUY No 100¢ $16 241d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $21 242d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $12 272d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $19 272d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $15 302d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $22 302d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $7 332d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $14 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $23 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $19 362d
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? BUY No 100¢ $13 364d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 393d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 393d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 394d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? BUY No 99¢ $8 424d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? BUY No 99¢ $9 424d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.66 · official $46.66 (match) · 102 history records