Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:06:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5C 0x5c21…4d5a world 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% $0
other 13% $0
sports 7% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.0% -7.7% 33% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 7 -2.0% -11.3% 43% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 10 -1.4% -10.8% 40% 0% -9.6%
all 20 -5.2% -14.3% 50% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 0% -9.5%
10% -22.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 89% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage471d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $36 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $45 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $37 +$2 +6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 27 $6 −$1 -12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $42 −$3 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $36 +$2 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $24 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Dec 14 $9 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mark Ouellet be the next pope? May 09 $0 $0 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 22 $12 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $31 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $39 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $14 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $25 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $37 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 39h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $5 28d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $3 28d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $3 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $38 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $42 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $17 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $20 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $28 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $4 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $6 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $41 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $41 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 51¢ $38 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $24 31d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $24 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 33d
Will Rumble buy TikTok? SELL No 100¢ $6 362d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? BUY No 98¢ $1 364d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records