Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:42:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5c27…1555 other 436 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Covers last 526d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,816 (+11%) realized +$5,616 · open +$3,200
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate70%285W / 125L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$16,157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$166
7 days−$79
14 days+$26
30 days+$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$476
world 19% +$1,670
politics 15% +$2,881
crypto 8% +$407
tech 6% +$788
culture 3% +$1,054
sports 3% −$393
economics 3% +$1,000
finance 2% +$473
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +33.8% +21.1% 88% 88% -18.8%
≤30d 27 +1.4% -8.3% 63% 59% -5.4%
≤90d 90 +15.0% +4.0% 76% 71% +4.5%
all 410 +9.7% -0.8% 70% 60% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 60% -2.4%
10% -10.3% 42% -11.7%
15% -18.9% 26% -20.3%
20% -26.9% 15% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$103 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$16,157
Realized+$5,616
Unrealized+$3,200
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses285 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions19
Markets (closed)410 / 436
History coverage527d ⚠
Avg bet$178
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 410 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 56¢ $4,576 $6,214 +$1,638 (+36%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 56¢ 99¢ $1,098 $1,942 +$844 (+77%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 38¢ 55¢ $1,023 $1,451 +$427 (+42%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 57¢ 57¢ $1,224 $1,233 +$9 (+1%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 No 43¢ 86¢ $592 $1,177 +$585 (+99%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 75¢ $638 $953 +$315 (+49%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No 52¢ 59¢ $752 $845 +$93 (+12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,103 $789 −$314 (-28%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $912 $678 −$234 (-26%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 56¢ 70¢ $207 $259 +$52 (+25%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $184 $190 +$6 (+3%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 32¢ $187 $154 −$33 (-18%)
Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 15¢ $159 $106 −$53 (-34%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 61¢ 60¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 73¢ 72¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots Yes 62¢ 52¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-16%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 40¢ $107 $9 −$99 (-92%)
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No 62¢ 84¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+35%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez Alvarez 37¢ $37 $6 −$31 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 29 $290 +$56 +19%
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Jun 28 $263 −$263 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots Jun 28 $37 +$16 +44%
Panama vs. England: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Croatia vs. Ghana: Gha Jun 27 $20 +$14 +71%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots Jun 27 $29 +$11 +36%
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shots AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $34 +$28 +83%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 26 $41 +$12 +29%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $53 +$47 +88%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 16 $77 +$105 +136%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Jun 14 $550 +$373 +68%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $853 +$391 +46%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $231 −$37 -16%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 09 $192 +$107 +56%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $57 −$57 -100%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $73 +$29 +39%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $28 +$40 +140%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Andrey Santos be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squ Jun 02 $261 −$261 -100%
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $255 −$255 -100%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $330 +$67 +20%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $144 −$144 -100%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 31 $45 +$18 +40%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? May 31 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 30 $1,118 +$68 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 29 $153 +$56 +37%
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-05-22? May 25 $162 −$162 -100%
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? May 23 $170 −$170 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-21? May 23 $137 +$50 +36%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 22 $302 +$188 +62%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $61 +$59 +96%
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $104 +$71 +68%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $178 +$62 +35%
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $237 +$182 +77%
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $221 +$197 +89%
Will Richarlison be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad May 19 $148 +$43 +29%
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? May 19 $39 +$8 +19%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $121 −$79 -65%
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list May 18 $64 −$9 -13%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 18 $83 +$20 +24%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $63 +$75 +119%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? May 16 $371 +$96 +26%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 14 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? May 11 $186 +$108 +58%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? May 07 $102 +$47 +46%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 05 $45 −$45 -98%
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $181 +$289 +160%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $102 +$56 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 61¢ $101 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29 BUY 19¢ $33 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots BUY Yes 62¢ $25 2h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $174 2h
Giuliano Simeone: 1+ shots AND Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ shots BUY 59¢ $25 26h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Jordan vs. BUY 72¢ $25 26h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Po BUY 24¢ $23 37h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots BUY Yes 69¢ $37 37h
Panama vs. England: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Croatia vs. Ghana: Gha BUY 58¢ $20 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY 22¢ $17 2d
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals AND Pedri: 1+ shots BUY 43¢ $5 2d
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shots AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY 54¢ $9 2d
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shots AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY 54¢ $25 2d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots AND Federico Valverde: 1+ shots BUY 50¢ $12 2d
Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots BUY Yes 73¢ $29 2d
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 94¢ $53 2d
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 4d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $15 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $48 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 5d
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $6 5d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $1 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $9 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $40 8d
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 72¢ $41 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,157.02 · official $16,190.26 (match) · 3500 history records