Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:53:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5C 0x5c29…1c24 crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$9 (+2%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$6
other 40% $0
crypto 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -49.0% -53.9% 50% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 3 -32.4% -38.8% 67% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 7 +14.7% +3.8% 86% 43% -7.2%
all 7 +14.7% +3.8% 86% 43% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 43% -7.2%
10% -6.1% 29% -16.1%
15% -15.2% 14% -24.2%
20% -23.5% 14% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.12 per $1 lost it wins $5.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage34d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 60¢ $214 $215 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 25 $293 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 23 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 23 $5 +$1 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 22 $1 +$2 +159%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.62 · official $214.62 (match) · 18 history records