Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:34:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c2d…935c other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$893 (-53%) realized −$910 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$910
7 days−$910
14 days−$910
30 days−$910
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$1,004
sports 6% +$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -25.9% -33.0% 33% 33% -61.7%
≤30d 6 -25.9% -33.0% 33% 33% -61.7%
≤90d 6 -25.9% -33.0% 33% 33% -61.7%
all 6 -25.9% -33.0% 33% 33% -61.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.0% 33% -61.7%
10% -39.4% 33% -65.4%
15% -45.3% 33% -68.7%
20% -50.6% 33% -71.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$290 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$910
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $283 $0 −$283 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $381 $0 −$381 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $463 $0 −$463 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $139 −$31 -22%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $105 +$94 +89%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $470 −$463 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $203 +$157 +78%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $391 −$381 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $392 −$285 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 13¢ $108 47m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $198 3h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 52¢ $105 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $101 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $359 19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $360 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 20h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 55¢ $203 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $100 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $101 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $101 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $99 35h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $7 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $192 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records