Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:36:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

5C 0x5c2f…27f6 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d

RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$74 (+5%) realized +$76 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +78% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +61% what you keep after slip

Net edge+61%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%7W / 9L

Drawdown79%max

Avg bet$68per market

Trades / day1.3pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$349

7 days−$102

14 days−$24

30 days+$179

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)+61.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	-28.2%	-35.1%	36%	36%	-19.1%
≤30d	16	+78.0%	+61.1%	44%	44%	+4.9%
≤90d	16	+78.0%	+61.1%	44%	44%	+4.9%
all	16	+78.0%	+61.1%	44%	44%	+4.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+61.1%	44%	+4.9%
10%	+45.7%	44%	-5.2%
15%	+31.6%	44%	-14.3%
20%	+18.7%	44%	-22.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 49% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +78% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +231% → late -75% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$94 vs −$53 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.37 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage

Net worth$188

Realized+$76

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses7 / 9

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions3

Markets (closed)16 / 20

History coverage23d

Avg bet$68

Trades / day1.3

Drawdown79%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	56¢	56¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	43¢	42¢	$60	$59	−$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	49¢	48¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$101	+$55	+55%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 20	$31	−$31	-100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 20	$46	−$46	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 20	$61	−$34	-55%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 20	$51	−$51	-100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 20	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 20	$102	−$102	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 20	$127	−$127	-100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 20	$31	−$31	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$101	+$74	+73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$49	+$76	+155%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$51	+$49	+97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$152	+$122	+80%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	Jun 13	$5	+$78	+1519%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$163	+$203	+125%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	56¢	$101	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	49¢	$30	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$31	2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi	BUY	27¢	$31	2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$31	22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	25¢	$31	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	29¢	$18	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	48¢	$30	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$101	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	50¢	$51	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY	55¢	$152	5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	50¢	$127	6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	40¢	$102	6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	9¢	$21	6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	6¢	$10	7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$20	7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$31	7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	16¢	$28	7d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$83	7d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	1¢	$5	7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$31	7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$31	9d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY Team WE	30¢	$46	14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	21¢	$51	15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	SELL Yes	100¢	$366	21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	31¢	$61	21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	58¢	$101	22d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.10 · official $218.10 · 43 history records